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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUN 19 2000
 
CARLOTTA HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THIS MORNING...
WITH STRONG CONVECTION (TOPS TO -88C) THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NORMAL DIURNAL MINIMUM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...
BUT ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED BY CONSTRAINTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL
BE SET TO 45 KT. IT IS NOTABLE...AND A LITTLE STRANGE...THAT SHIP
KGJD LOCATED ABOUT 80 NM NNW OF THE CENTER REPORTED WEST WINDS 11 KT
AT 06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THIS WOULD STEER CARLOTTA ON A WEST-
NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY QUESTION BEING HOW
CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST WILL THE STORM COME. THE GFDL FORECASTS A
CLOSE APPROACH TO THE COAST...WHILE THE UKMET STAYS FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES...TRACKING ABOUT 75 NM FROM THE COAST. IT IS ALSO VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH ALL
GUIDANCE FORECASTING CARLOTTA TO BE A HURRICANE IN 24 HR OR LESS.
THE SHIPS MODELS FORECASTS A 90 KT SYSTEM BY 72 HR. GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS AND THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDS FORECAST BY THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE
CARLOTTA COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EVEN SHIPS FORECASTS...IF THE
CYCLONE DOES NOT GET TOO TANGLED UP WITH THE MEXICAN COAST.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. THEY HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH IN
CASE CARLOTTA COMES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 13.6N  96.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.4N  97.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N  99.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 15.9N 101.1W    70 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 106.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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