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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUN 18 2000
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABUNDANT NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THIS...AND THE 35 KT SHIP
REPORT EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO STORM
STATUS AT 00Z. THE CONVECTION...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN LOCATED TO
THE WEST OF THE CENTER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...
HAS NOW WORKED ITS WAY TO THE EAST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 40 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...
WHICH WERE LIMITED BY THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/10...WHICH IS FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CARLOTTA WILL
SOON BE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH THAT SHOULD DEFLECT THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. HOW
SOON THIS OCCURS WILL AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GETS TO
THE MEXICAN COAST. THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT ON A TRACK
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST FROM 30 TO 120 MILES OFFSHORE. THE
GFDL IS THE CLOSEST TO LAND BUT APPEARS TO HAVE DIFFICULTY
MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT THIS EVENING. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS
CARLOTTA TO 83 KT IN 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE NOT
IMPRESSED. OUTFLOW APPEARS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SIDE AT THIS
TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAT COULD LIMIT OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NOT AS AGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 13.2N 95.4W 40 KTS
12HR VT 19/1200Z 14.0N 96.6W 45 KTS
24HR VT 20/0000Z 14.8N 98.2W 55 KTS
36HR VT 20/1200Z 15.6N 100.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.5W 65 KTS
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