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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUN 16 2000
 
BUD CONTINUES TO HAVE NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND THE COLDEST
REMAINING CLOUD TOPS ARE TO THE NORTH NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT...AND SO ARE
REPORTED WINDS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND AND SHIP C6LF9. THUS... 25 KT ARE
THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE SOCORRO ISLAND PRESSURE IS
1000.3 MB...INDICATING A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 998 MB...WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 105/3. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HAS
APPARENTLY DUG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. THE
STILL-DIVERGENT TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUD SHOULD START
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATION.

WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUD WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
RESIDUAL LARGE CIRCULATION MAY PRODUCE 20-25 KT WINDS FOR A DAY OR
TWO MORE.
  
12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCLUDED BASED ON REPORTS OF 13 FT COMBINED
SEAS FROM SHIPS C6LF9 AND 4XGT EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 19.8N 110.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.8N 110.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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