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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUN 16 2000

BUD HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND IS MAINLY A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FULLY EXPOSED CENTER. BUD HAS
REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT WE ARE
INDICATING A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
HELD AT 30 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON A 1327Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATING 30 KT IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE.

NO CHANGE FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING AS BUD IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...GFDL...AVN AND
NOGAPS MODELS.
 
CONTINUED SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS NO
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. HOWEVER...OWING TO THE LARGE
CIRCULATION...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR BUD TO WIND DOWN.
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS
MODEL AND IN 24 HOURS BY THE GFDL MODEL.

12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCLUDED BASED ON 10 FT SWELLS AND 14 FT
COMBINED SEAS BY SHIP 4XGT AT 12Z ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND THE 30 KT QUIKSCAT WINDS TO THE WEST.

FORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 19.7N 111.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 111.3W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.1N 111.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     18/0600Z 18.7N 111.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED
  
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