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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUN 16 2000

BUD NOW HAS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY BASED ON THIS SYSTEMS LARGE
CIRCULATION. INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY OR A SLIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DRIFT.

ALL OF OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE...EXCEPT LBAR...INDICATE A TRACK TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST
IN KEEPING THE FORWARD SPEED LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO THE UKMET AND AVN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST AND PHILOSOPHY.
 
SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BASED ON
THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. SOME COLD
UPWELLING HAS LIKELY OCCURRED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER IN THE
DIRECTION BUD IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS WHICH COULD HASTEN THE
WEAKENING PROCESS MORESO THAN WE ARE INDICATING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL AND UKMET MODEL BOTH DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 19.9N 111.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.7N 111.6W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.4N 111.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     18/0000Z 19.1N 111.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED
 
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