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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 16 2000

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE FEW
PATCHES OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WHILE T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS BUT SOME GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY STILL OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. BECAUSE BUD IS OVER COOL WATER...A
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN
36 HOURS OR LESS.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS WEAKEN BUD
RAPIDLY.  BUT AS USUAL...THESE SWIRLS OF LOW CLOUDS...REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES...COULD LINGER FOR DAYS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION. 

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT ONCE
IT BECOMES COMPLETELY EXPOSED...IT MAY BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE MIDDLE-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BUD MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 20.2N 111.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 112.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.2N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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