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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 15 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST...330/06...AND
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY AND CONVECTION IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE REMAINS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING LITTLE MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WHILE THE
BAM MODELS INDICATING A FASTER MOTION TO THE NW AND W. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...
BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS SHOWING THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
 
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER COOLER SSTS AND ALSO ENTRAIN MORE COOL STABLE AIR ON THE WEST
SIDE AS SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...BUT
MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 19.5N 111.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.9N 111.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N 111.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.1N 111.8W    25 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
  
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