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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUN 15 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BUD IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY NEAR
SOCORRO ISLAND BUT NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SINCE 0300 UTC
FROM THAT SITE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY  REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS OR 3.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY AN
EXCELLENT PASS OF THE TRMM SATELLITE AT 0536 UTC.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 BUT THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS INDICATED BY THE UK... GFDL AND
GFDN MODELS.  THESE MODELS BASICALLY KEEP A WEAKENING BUD MEANDERING
AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE BEGINNING
OF A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS.
 
BECAUSE BUD IS ALREADY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY SHIPS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 18.7N 110.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 110.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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