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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUN 14 2000
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...
EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PASSES.  A LOW-LEVEL CENTER
APPEARED TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
EARLIER...BUT MORE RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW AND MID-
LEVEL CENTERS ARE REASONABLY CO-LOCATED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 325/8...AND AS SUGGESTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE LAST TWO ADVISORY POSITIONS WERE IN FACT TOO FAR TO
THE WEST.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BUD ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT.  THE UKMET SHOWS A SHARP TURN BACK TO
THE EAST...AND THE BAMS AND STATISTICAL MODELS HAVE A STRONG
WESTWARD MOTION.  THE GFDL IS IN THE MIDDLE AND CLOSE TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN
BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET...WITH THE DIFFERENCE BEING IN THE FORECAST
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE TROPICAL STORM VERY CLOSE TO SOCORRO
ISLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 17.2N 110.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 110.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.9N 111.4W    55 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 111.6W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 111.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 111.0W    40 KTS

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