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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUN 14 2000
 
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NRL WEB PAGE SEVERAL HOURS AGO
SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF BUD WAS CONSIDERABLY NORTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  THE CENTER IS HARD TO PINPOINT ON IR
IMAGERY...BUT THE FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK OVERNIGHT.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7...
BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL PROBABLY SHOW
THAT THE TRACK IS EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN THAT. 

TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECIDEDLY AMBIVALENT...WITH THE BAMS AND
STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE BASED ON THE AVN...SHOWING A TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL RUN OFF THE NOGAPS FIELDS AND
THE UKMET MODEL INDICATE A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM AND A TURN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.  THE LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE CURRENT MOTION.  BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BUD THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WESTWARD
STEERING CURRENT...THE UKMET MORE SO.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AVN.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS THE GFDL/UKMET SOLUTION AND IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS MORNING FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0...CORRESPONDING TO 45 KT...AND THE
INTENSITY OF BUD IS INCREASED ON THIS BASIS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT NOT TO HURRICANE STATUS.  BY THEN...BUD WILL BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECAY.  EVEN WITH THE
FORECAST TURN BACK TO THE EAST...THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE
MEXICAN COAST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 15.7N 109.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 111.4W    55 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.7N 111.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 112.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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