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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUN 14 2000

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BUD HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE
OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST.  AN AVERAGE OF THE
TAFB...SAB AND KGWC T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT WINDS REMAIN AT 40
KNOTS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON I IMAGES BUT
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED ON CONTINUITY IS
290/08. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A
LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE CONVECTION.    

THERE IS DILEMMA. RELIABLE AND HARD TO IGNORE UK...GFDL AND GFDN
MODELS...TURN BUD NORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE 500 MB
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.  THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL THREAT TO
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  HOWEVER THE BAM AND THE AVN MODELS INDICATE A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK...AWAY FROM MEXICO...BASED ON
THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGER AND A MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE FORECAST BY
THE AVN.  THIS CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY
STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH ARE GOOD PERFORMERS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 
AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE OF THE UK AND GFDL AND GFDN SOLUTION...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND SLOWS BUD DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. 

IF THIS FORECAST TRACK MATERIALIZES...BUD WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS AND WEAKENING COULD BEGIN.   A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK WOULD DELAY ANY WEAKENING. SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS ONLY A MODEST
STRENGTHENING BUT IT IS BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHICH
KEPT BUD OVER WARMER WATERS.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 15.3N 109.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 113.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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