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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 13 2000
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BEEN TRACKING AT 290/07 THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST BASED
ON EARLIER SSMI AND TRMM IMAGES...AND VISIBLE ANIMATIONS. THESE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED
NORTHEAST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK BASED ON THE UW-CIMMS WATER VAPOR WINDS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL HIGH/RIDGE EXTENDING E-W ALONG 35N LATITUDE.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE UKMET DRIFTS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER 48
HOURS WHEREAS THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM DUE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WE FEEL THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL MOVE MORE TO THE WEST THAN NORTH. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO WEAKENING STEERING
CURRENTS.

POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BASED ON HIGH CLOUD
MOTIONS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE VERTICALLY ALIGNED DUE TO SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AS
A RESULT...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND THEN REMAINING STEADY OR A SLIGHT DECREASE THROUGH 72
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS. THIS IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 14.8N 108.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.3N 109.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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