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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 13 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1200Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP KAOU INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS BROAD...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS IMPROVING. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE 25 KT/1002 MB SHIP REPORT NORTH OF
THE ESTIMATED CENTER.

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF
OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON
THE UKMET MODEL.

INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN REMAINING
STEADY THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER
SSTS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 14.7N 107.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.3N 109.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 112.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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