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HURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI MAY 26 2000
 
ON IR AND EARLY VIS IMAGES...THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
ALETTA IS SHAPELESS AND CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP BUT RAGGED
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THERE
ARE NO BANDING FEATURES AND THE OUTFLOW IS DISRUPTED.  NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM.  NEVERTHELESS...DVORAK T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST THAT ALETTA IS STILL A HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS. 
EVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING WEAKENING...SOME
MODELS FASTER THAN OTHERS.  THE AVN DISSIPATES ALETTA QUITE SOON
WHILE DEVELOPING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY CLOSE BY.  THIS COULD
BE THE REPRESENTATION OF ALETTA IN THE MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BASED ON PERSISTENCE.   

ALETTA HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY.  MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO I DO NOT HAVE TO DISCUSS THEM AGAIN. ALETTA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN ONCE A NEW
HIGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED BY
GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 14.7N 107.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 14.7N 107.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 108.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 108.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 16.9N 109.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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