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HURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU MAY 25 2000
 
THE MOTION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS.  THE 18Z
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEAR
THE HURRICANE AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED.  THE
GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A NORTHWARD
DRIFT...THE NOGAPS IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND THE STATISTICAL
DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOWS A WESTWARD DRIFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

WHILE THERE IS NO EYE FEATURE...A COLD CDO CONTINUES TO PERSIST. 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS...UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 14.8N 107.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W    80 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 14.9N 108.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 15.2N 109.1W    80 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 109.7W    75 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W    70 KTS
  
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