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HURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED MAY 24 2000
 
ALETTA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2000 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. 

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND KGWC INDICATE THAT THE
T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUIVALENT TO
65 KNOTS OR HURRICANE INTENSITY.  ALETTA HAS A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TO THE WEST. THE
OUTFLOW IS FAIR BUT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.  SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST MODEL...THE BEST PERFORMER SO FAR...BRINGS ALETTA TO 80
KNOTS BY 48 TO 60 HOURS AND THEN INDICATES NO CHANGE. SHIPS
INDICATES THAT THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO STRENGTHENING COMES FROM
WARM SST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY SHIPS. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/05. A WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND THE TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE ALETTA TO MOVE ON A VERY SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ALL
DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS. GFDL TAKE ALETTA EASTWARD...AVN LOOPS THE
HURRICANE WHILE THE BAM MODELS MOVE THE HURRICANE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
A FASTER PACE.   
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 14.5N 105.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N 106.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 14.7N 106.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.7N 107.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W    80 KTS
 
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