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TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE MAY 23 2000
 
ALETTA IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST BY
THE AVIATION MODEL TO REMAIN WEAK WITH A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES THE STORM SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

THERE IS A PERSISTANT CDO FEATURE AND GOOD BANDING WAS EVIDENT ON
THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 14.6N 103.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.6N 104.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N 105.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 14.7N 106.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 14.8N 106.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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