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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON MAY 22 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/11.  A 500-MB LOW JUST WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IN 3 TO
4 DAYS.  THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A SLOWING OF THE WESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE.  THE P9UK
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL ALSO SHOWS SOME SLOWING.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS INFLUENCED BY THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE DEPRESSION
PARALLEL TO AND ABOUT 150 N MI OFF SHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND STRENGTHENING MAY BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BUT THE CONVECITON THAT REMAINS
IS NEAR THE CENTER AS WELL AS IN A CURVED BAND AND THE LIMITED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPP0RT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. 

WE ARE ADVERTISING THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...FROM OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 14.7N 101.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.4N 103.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.2N 104.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.8N 106.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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