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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON MAY 22 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  ALTHOUGH THE
BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS ERODED SOME...NEW BANDING
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH NOW AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A STORM LATER TODAY.  THE
SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS
GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11...ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST PACKAGE. 
THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS A GREAT DEAL OF SCATTER.  THE GFDL
MODEL STALLS THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HOURS AND TURNS IT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  THE UKMET SUGGESTS A SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTH
AFTER 36 HOURS...WHILE THE BAMS AND THE STATISTICAL P91E INDICATE A
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET...ALTHOUGH WE
STILL EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP
THE SYSTEM OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  

WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS A RATHER COMPACT WIND FIELD...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS ALONG THE
COAST NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 14.2N 100.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 102.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 15.7N 104.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.4N 105.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 107.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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