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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS BECOME RATHER RAGGED-
LOOKING...AND THE CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DENSE
OVERCAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY WELL-
ORGANIZED LOOKING AT THIS TIME...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY
OR SO.  WE COULD SEE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN SHOWN HERE...DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...OR BECAUSE OF A MERGER WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS WAS THE CASE WITH MICHAEL.  HOWEVER WE HAVE
LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SUCH EVENTS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 045/17.   SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION SHOULD
BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO AS A 500 MB TROUGH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES... MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CREATES AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTWARD STEERING CURRENT FOR NADINE.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST AVN MODEL RUN AND IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE MODEL
TRACK.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 35.4N  51.1W    50 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 37.4N  49.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 40.0N  46.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     23/0000Z 44.0N  42.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     23/1200Z 49.0N  35.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/1200Z 58.0N  20.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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