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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17.  THE HEADING HAS TURNED 20
DEGREES TO THE RIGHT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE FORWARD MOTION HAS
INCREASED.  THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO THE LOW TO THE NORTH WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BYPASS THE STORM.  NADINE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FOR ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE LEFT.  THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES
THE NEXT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND IN 48 HOURS.  OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
AS BEFORE...ACCELERATING NADINE NORTHEASTWARD FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS.  

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOOKING LIKE A FRONTAL WAVE AND
THE COLD FRONT MAY WELL BE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BY NOW.  BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST ADVISORY...INCREASING THE WIND FROM 50 TO TO 60 KNOTS
BUT AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES
THE SAME AND THE GFDL MODEL HAS AN EXTRATROPICAL 64 KNOTS IN 48
HOURS WITH 42 KNOT VERTICAL SHEAR AND 17C SSTS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 34.0N  52.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 35.5N  51.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 38.0N  49.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     22/1800Z 41.5N  45.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     23/0600Z 46.5N  39.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/0600Z 57.0N  26.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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