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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11.  VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES NOT
ALLOW A VERY ACCURATE DETERMINATION OF THE LOCATION SINCE THERE ARE
LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITHIN ABOUT 100 N MI OF THE
PRESUMED CENTER.  THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY SHOWING AN ACCELERATION MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND
UKMET MODELS AND WELL AS MPC GUIDANCE.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS FALLING APART AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT QUICKSCAT AND SSMI DATA AS WELL AS VISIBLE
IMAGERY.  PERHAPS THE CENTER HAS TANGLED WITH A COLD FRONT. 
MEANWHILE AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AND THE WINDS ARE
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH
INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD SSTS AHEAD.  THE GFDL
FORECASTS WINDS TO NEAR 70 KNOTS.  THESE FORECASTS FOR
INTENSIFICATION ARE LIKELY BASED ON BAROCLINIC FORCING RATHER THAN
TROPICAL ENERGY SOURCES SINCE THERE IS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
COLD SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.   EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION
IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 31.9N  56.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 33.3N  55.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 35.8N  53.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 42.0N  46.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     23/1800Z 52.0N  35.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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