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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS HARD TO LOCATE...ALTHOUGH AN SSMI
PASS AT 22Z SEEMED TO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL MOTION...030/11...
IS NOT AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RECENT SHIP REPORTS AND A QUIKSCAT PASS.  

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SAME TROUGH THAT JUST ATE MICHAEL.  THE AVN AND UKMET PULL THE
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION AND ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO THE
EAST OF THE CYCLONE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST IN 42-48 HOURS.  THE GFDL REACTS
TO THIS BY TURNING THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HINTS AT THIS BUT IS TO THE RIGHT OF
THE GFDL.

AS WE WERE WITH MICHAEL...WE ARE FACED WITH HAVING TO ASSESS HOW THE
SYSTEM WILL RESPOND TO THE SHEAR ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.  THIS CYCLONE IS NOT FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS FAST AS
MICHAEL...SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER FROM ANY
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SOURCES OF ENERGY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN SHOWING ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL IS A MORE ENTHUSIASTIC AND I NOTE THAT IT
DID FAIRLY WELL WITH THE INTENSITY OF MICHAEL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 29.0N  58.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 30.3N  57.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 32.1N  54.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 34.1N  52.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 36.5N  49.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 42.5N  44.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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