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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN.  ALTHOUGH A WELL DEFINED CENTER IS NOT APPARENT
AT THIS TIME ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN BANDS. 
THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD.  THE VESSEL C6LP4 LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.  A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL
OVER WARM WATERS AND BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH ABOUT 14 KNOTS. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS INDICATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 28.6N  59.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 30.0N  58.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 32.0N  55.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 34.5N  52.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 36.5N  50.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 41.0N  45.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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