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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2000
 
MICHAEL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 040/33.  A POORLY-DEFINED EYE IS STILL PRESENT...ALONG
WITH SOME EYEWALL CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65
KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB.  THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 65 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF MICHAEL...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.  MICHAEL
SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS LOW...WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING EXACTLY
WHERE AND WHEN.  LARGE-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MERGER
COULD OCCUR IN LESS THAN 24 HR.  SINCE MICHAEL IS STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE MODELS...IT MAY KEEP ITS IDENTITY A LITTLE LONGER
OR BECOME THE PREDOMINANT CENTER IN THE MERGER.  THE FORECAST TRACK
ASSUMES THAT MICHAEL WILL KEEP ITS IDENTITY WHILE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...TAKING THE CENTER TO NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 24 HR.  THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH THAT OF THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT IF
MICHAEL AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW MERGE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE COMBINED CENTER WILL TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW OR WHERE MICHAEL AND THE LOW COME
TOGETHER...THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM STRONG.  ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
MAXIMUM WINDS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SPREADING OUT OF THE WIND
FIELD AS MICHAEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 37.5N  64.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 41.4N  60.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 47.1N  53.2W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW... 
 
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