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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2000

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  A RECENT AIR RECON FLIGHT REPORTED 89 KNOTS AT
850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL AT A POSITION SOME 18 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER ALONG WITH 979 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO
RECENTLY REPORTED 95 KNOTS AT 1500 FT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AND 980 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE..AS WELL AS A STEP FREQUENCY RADIOMETER
MEASUREMENT OF 85 KNOTS SURFACE WIND.  SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.  THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE VALUE BASED ON THE
ASSUMPTION OF INCREASED STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE BASED ON A 76
DEGREE F SST REPORT FROM A NEARBY SHIP THIS MORNING.  A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER COLD WATER AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO
AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z
AVIATION MODEL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/15.  THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS
ACCELERATION TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS
SHIFTED JUST SLIGHLTY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 33.7N  68.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  66.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 41.0N  62.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 46.0N  57.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     20/1800Z 51.0N  54.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     21/11800Z MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 
 
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