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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2000

A WELL-DEFINED EYE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE COMING IN
LINE WITH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE.  AN EXPERIENCED AIRCRAFT
METEOROLOGIST ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 TO 70 KNOTS...AND FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 72 KNOTS WERE ALSO MEASURED.  MICHAEL IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THE BASIS OF THESE OBSERVATIONS.  SINCE
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL...WITH SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO AS SHEAR
INCREASES EVEN FURTHER AND WATER TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.

MICHAEL HAS MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND COMPLETED ANOTHER LOOP IN ITS
TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVN
MODEL RUN.  THAT MODEL SHOULD PERFORM QUITE WELL FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM.  MICHAEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEPENING ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS MICHAEL APPROACHES THE
ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT CYCLONE...WHICH IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ...IT SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. 
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MICHAEL MAY IN FACT BECOME ABSORBED BY
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 30.2N  71.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 30.8N  70.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 32.2N  69.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 34.5N  68.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 39.0N  64.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     20/1800Z 48.5N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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