HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 07 2000
 
THE CENTER OF LESLIE REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED...ALTHOUGH A LARGE
CONVECTIVE CELL HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  
 
LESLIE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 040/16.  THE O4O DEGREE HEADING SHOWS THAT LESLIE HAS AGAIN
SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DIRECTION.  LESLIE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 24 TO 36
HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLE.  
 
WITH THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER
WINDS BEING ADVECTED DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE IN CONVECTION IT WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH TO MAKE LESLIE A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN.  THAT
POSSIBILITY EXISTS TODAY.  HOWEVER...BY 24 TO 36 HOURS...LESLIE IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHEN INTO A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 33.8N  68.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 35.9N  66.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     08/0600Z 40.0N  62.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     08/1800Z 45.5N  57.4W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     09/0600Z 52.6N  49.2W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     10/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN