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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE TOPS GRADUALLY WARMING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.  A RECENT
RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 1007 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A MAXIMUM WIND OF
41 KNOTS AT 1500 FT LOCATED 80 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  LESLIE
IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT DEPRESSION.  SINCE THERE IS SO LITTLE
CONVECTION...ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES AND
THE FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THIS BY INCREASING THE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS AT
36 HOURS.  EVEN THIS MAY BE UNLIKEY AS THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL DOES
NOT SHOW ANY SUCH STRENGTHENING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/09.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD...TO NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT
48 HOURS...IMPLYING A FORWARD MOTION INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO AND TO
MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 31.7N  71.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 32.9N  68.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     08/0600Z 40.5N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     08/1800Z 48.0N  54.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     09/1800Z...MERGED WITH COLD FRONT 
 
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