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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/09.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS OR NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND
AFTER 48 HOURS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
A RECON PLANE RECENTLY FOUND 45 KNOT WINDS ABOUT 90 NMI EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 850 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGEERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH ALL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS ALTHOUGH
99 PERCENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY BELOW THAT VALUE.  THIS
STORM IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT IS SWEPT ALONG BY
THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS THIS OCCURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.  THIS IS
PRIMARILY FOR MARINE INTERESTS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 31.1N  72.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 31.7N  70.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 33.5N  67.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 37.5N  62.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     08/1200Z 43.0N  58.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     09/1200Z 55.0N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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