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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000
 
LESLIE HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WELL EXPOSED CENTER.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS
DOWN TO 1006 MB BUT THE WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 35 KNOTS.  LESLIE COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

LESLIE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS.   HOWEVER...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE.

WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND BECAUSE
MOST OF THE WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 30.8N  72.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 31.0N  69.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 33.0N  65.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 36.5N  61.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 42.0N  56.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     09/0600Z 52.0N  46.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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