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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BEEN CONTRACTING...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT REPORTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER...WHEREAS
YESTERDAY THEY WERE ABOUT TWICE AS FAR OUT...AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION. 
WHILE THIS IS BY NO MEANS A CLASSIC TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT HAS ENOUGH
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND WIND...TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
STORM.  IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT NATURE PRODUCES A WHOLE
SPECTRUM OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF CYCLONES...AND THAT THEY DO NOT
ALWAYS NEATLY FIT INTO THE SMALL NUMBER OF CLASSIFICATIONS THAT WE
HAVE AVAILABLE FOR USE IN OUR ADVISORIES.

THE CENTER IS STILL NOT TIGHT...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS BEST
ESTIMATED AS 080/13...FASTER THAN BEFORE.  LESLIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THEREFORE...THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OFF THE EAST COAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MODELLED AFTER THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT IS
FASTER THAN THE AVN WHICH DID NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIAL MOTION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 30.4N  76.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 30.8N  73.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 31.6N  70.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.8N  68.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 34.5N  65.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 40.0N  59.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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