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SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2000
 
THE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION...WHEREAS
EARLIER THE SYSTEM HAD MULTIPLE SMALL TRANSIENT SWIRLS ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE.  WITH CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS THE STRUCTURE OF A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.  WE RECEIVED A SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF SUBTROPICAL T1.5
FROM TAFB.  UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS BEING PROVIDED BY
A TROUGH...RATHER THAN AN ANTICYCLONE TYPICALLY FOUND ABOVE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS.  AMONG OTHER THINGS...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES DIFFER FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THAT THE FORMER ARE LESS SYMMETRICAL AND HAVE
THEIR STRONGEST WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATION AND SHIP REPORTS.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
WARM WATER AND THESE SYSTEMS OCCASIONALLY TRANSFORM INTO TROPICAL
CYCLONES.  REGARDLESS OF THE TECHNICAL STATUS OF THE SYSTEM...
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
 
THE BAROCLINIC GLOBAL MODELS CAN BE EXPECTED TO HANDLE THIS KIND OF
SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AVN...BUT
IS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 29.8N  80.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 30.7N  80.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 31.7N  78.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 32.5N  75.9W    50 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 33.0N  72.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 34.0N  64.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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