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TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
RADAR DATA FROM TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
KEITH TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT AFTER LANDFALL.  THIS DOES NOT
AGREE WELL WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD VICTORIA....
WHICH HAS REPORTED PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS.  HOWEVER...
SIMULTANEOUS WITH THOSE WINDS WAS A REPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWEST.  THIS SUGGESTS THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE AFFECTED BY
TERRAIN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO 300/11 BASED ON THE RADAR.

THERE'S NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY.  KEITH IS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  IT WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HR...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER
DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 23.5N  99.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N 100.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     07/0000Z 25.5N 101.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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