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TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000
 
THE CENTER OF KEITH HAS FINALLY MOVED INLAND.  THE LAST RECON REPORT
HAD THE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ON RADAR AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 990 MB.  TERRAIN HAZARDS KEPT THE CREW FROM LOCATING THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE RECON WIND DATA
SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05.  NOW THAT KEITH IS INLAND...
RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.  THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE FUTURE
TRACK OF KEITH.  I HAVE FOLLOWED THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL MODELS
THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN TAKE KEITH MORE NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS
SIMILAR TO THE UKMET MODEL.  THE UKMET SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE FAST
WITH THE FORWARD MOTION...WHILE THE AVN MODEL LOSES KEITH AFTER
ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ONCE KEITH EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...RE-INTENSIFICATION AND A DEEPER CIRCULATION SHOULD DEVELOP. 
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AFTER 48 HOURS FAVORS A MORE NORTHWARD THAN
WESTWARD MOTION...AND THAT TREND WAS FOLLOWED AS PER THE NOGAPS AND
UKMET MODELS.
 
KEITH HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR THE PAST 36
HOURS.  THAT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL KEITH
EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AT THAT TIME...ALL THE GLOBAL
AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF KEITH SHOULD BE UNDER THE MEAN 200 MB RIDGE
AXIS AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  WITH BOTH A POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN PRESENT...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...SUCH A PATTERN OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...BUT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE WAS HELD DOWN DUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
WESTERN GULF NOT MOVING OUT IN TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 18.3N  88.7W    50 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.1N  89.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.1N  90.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/1800Z 21.3N  90.9W    35 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.0N  91.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N  92.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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