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TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2000
 
THE LAST RECON FLIGHT FOUND 75 KT WINDS AT 850 MB AT 2036Z...AND
DECREASING WINDS THEREAFTER.  THE LAST REPORTED PRESSURE WAS 988 MB. 
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  KEITH IS
DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS.

THE RECON FIXES INDICATED THAT KEITH WAS DRIFTING AT 330/2.  IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS ANOTHER OF THE CYCLONE'S MEANDERS...OR IF
IT IS THE START OF THE LONG-AWAITED NORTHWEST TURN.  IF IT IS THE
LATTER...IT LOOKS RATHER STRANGE GIVEN THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF WESTERN
CUBA.  IN THEORY...THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP KEITH ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK.  DESPITE THE THEORY...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE STORM.  SEVERAL OF THE MODELS EVEN CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST BEFORE 72 HR.  GIVEN KEITH'S RELUCTANCE TO
MOVE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT GO AS FAST AS THE
GUIDANCE AND WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT WOULD
NOT BE THE LEAST SURPRISING IF KEITH DID NOT TURN NORTHWARD AT
ALL...A TRACK FAVORED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
 
WHILE KEITH IS SUFFERING FROM A COMBINATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR AND
LAND INTERACTION...IT SHOWS A GOOD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AND BANDED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ASSUMING IT FOLLOWS THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND.  THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE AND PREDICTED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION...IF THE CENTER GETS
THERE. 

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 18.0N  88.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.2N  88.2W    50 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.0N  88.6W    40 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.4N  89.4W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N  90.5W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
72HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N  93.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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