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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2000
 
RECON FOUND 76 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH GIVES 60-65 KT AT THE SURFACE
USING STANDARD REDUCTIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP KEITH A HURRICANE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.  RECON AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT
KEITH IS CREEPING TO THE WEST...BUT IS STILL OVER WATER.  A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER LAND.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT HAPPENING AS FAST AS FORECAST...AND
THE DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN CUBA...WHICH IS NOT WELL INITIALIZED IN
EITHER THE AVN OR UKMET...IS PROBABLY INTERFERING WITH THE RIDGING
PROCESS.  THE AVN ALSO HAS BEEN INITIALIZING KEITH IN THE WRONG
PLACE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NOT AS FAST TO THE NORTHWEST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE UKMET WHICH TAKES KEITH TO THE TEXAS COAST IN 72 HOURS.

ASSUMING KEITH EVER MOVES INLAND...IT WILL LIKELY SPEND AT LEAST 24
HOURS OVER LAND.  GIVE THE SMALL WIND ENVELOPE...IT IS NOT CLEAR
THAT MUCH WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IN 48-
72 HOURS...AND SO WE LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL
RECOVERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 17.7N  88.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.8N  88.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 18.9N  88.8W    45 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.4N  89.3W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N  92.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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