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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000
 
KEITH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN.  LAST RECON REPORTED THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 979 MB AND THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND WAS 68 KT.  THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT HAM RADIO REPORTS OF 80 MPH
SO THE WINDS WILL BE HELD A LITTLE ABOVE WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE
AIRCRAFT.  KEITH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT
REMAINS PARTIALLY OVER WATER.  OBVIOUSLY THE DECAY WILL BE MUCH
FASTER SHOULD KEITH MOVE INLAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL STATIONARY.  THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD
DRIFT HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HAS NOT BUILT WEST AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED.  THERE IS AN AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MINIMAL STEERING
AROUND THE HURRICANE.  THE MORNING INITIALIZATION OF THE AVN PLACES
KEITH ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE HURRICANE
AND THE DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE ETA INITIALIZES
BOTH SYSTEMS AND ROTATES THE TWO AROUND EACH OTHER.  THE UKMET...ON
THE OTHER HAND...DOES NOT SHOW THE SECOND SYSTEM AND TAKES KEITH TO
THE NORTHWEST.  GIVEN THIS SPREAD...IT IS HARD TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
AND HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW MOTION FORECAST IS THE BEST BET. 
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND MAY WELL NOT BE SLOW ENOUGH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 17.7N  87.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 17.7N  87.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.3N  88.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N  88.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  89.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 25.0N  91.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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