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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000
THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM SIX HOURS
AGO AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC AS SHOWN IN THE 18Z AVIATION 500 MB FIELDS. THE GFDL
AND AVIATION MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE A LITTLE EASTWARD BEFORE
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND THE AVIATION MODEL KEEPS
THE CENTER OVER WATER AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOVING THE CENTER SLOWLY ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 72
HOURS.
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS 958 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...UP 16 MB
IN 18 HOURS. THERE IS NO LONGER AN EYE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
BUT THE RECON MISSION REPORTED A CLOSED CIRCULAR EYEWALL AS RECENTLY
AS 23Z ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 133 KNOTS A
FEW MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A DROPSONDE MEASURED WINDS
OF 95 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE. EARLIER AT 21Z...A HAM RADIO REPORT
OF 125+ MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM SAN PEDRO ON AMBERGRIS CAY BELIZE.
THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 100 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY AND SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AS MUCH OR ALL OF THE
CIRCULATION STAYS OVER LAND. KEITH IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE
STRENGTH AT 72 HOURS AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 17.9N 87.9W 100 KTS
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.0N 87.9W 80 KTS
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.0N 88.0W 60 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 88.6W 50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 04/0000Z 22.0N 89.5W 45 KTS
72HR VT 05/0000Z 26.0N 92.0W 75 KTS
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