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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000
THERE HAS BEEN NO NEW RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE THE REPORT OF 942 MB
AT 0734Z AND A DROPSONDE-BASED PEAK WIND ESTIMATE OF 115 KT.
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 127
KT...THE RAW OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN A BIT AS THE COLD CLOUD
TOPS HAVE ERODED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 115 KT. ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AROUND 18Z.
SMOOTHING OUT THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK GIVES 275/2 FOR AN INITIAL
MOTION. KEITH REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT...IN A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC COL BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AS THE LOW OFFSHORE THE U.S.
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES OUT. THIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND KEITH AND PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOTION THAT WOULD MOVE KEITH OVER THE YUCATAN AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH. OF
CONCERN ARE THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH
BRING KEITH VERY CLOSE TO THE LOUISIANA COAST IN 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM RECENT GFDL RUNS SUGGEST
THAT THIS MODEL DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STORM.
THE AVN...ON WHICH THE GFDL IS BASED HAS THE CENTER OF KEITH
AVOIDING THE YUCATAN ENTIRELY...BUT TIME IS RUNNING OUT ON THIS
FORECAST AS THE WESTERN EYEWALL IS ONSHORE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.1N 87.6W 115 KTS
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.2N 87.8W 120 KTS
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.6N 88.0W 105 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.0N 88.4W 65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 03/1200Z 21.5N 89.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 04/1200Z 25.0N 90.5W 80 KTS
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