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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 270/02.  THE GUIDANCE IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM SIX HOURS
AGO WITH THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWING KEITH IN A COL REGION BETWEEN
ANTICYLONES TO THE WEST AND EAST AND A WEAK TROUGH JUST NORTH AT 500
MB.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODEL MOVE KEITH MOSTLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE UKMET IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO
MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY MOVING KEITH ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN...EXCEPT THAT THE
HEADING IS A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT HEADING
THAT KEITH TAKES...HURRICANE WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD SHORTLY
AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AND IF THE WESTWARD
DRIFT CONTINUES FOR MUCH LONGER...NORTHERN BELIZE COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HURRICANE WINDS.
 
THE LAST RECON FIX AT 21Z GAVE 966 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE MAX
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 101 KNOTS.  THIS IS A DROP OF 11 MB
IN 3 HOURS.  A DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS TO 120 KNOTS NEAR 900 MB
DECREASING TO 87 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  SINCE THEN SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO THE 100 TO 115 KNOT RANGE.
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS FOR
THE 03Z ADVISORY AND FORECAST TO 110 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS.  THE
STRENGHTENING IS MOST IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THAT SOME 25 PERCENT OF
THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND.  SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 24 TO 48
HOURS...SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
STRENGTHENING AGAIN AT 72 HOURS WHEN THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL AWAY FROM LAND IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 18.1N  87.1W   100 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.3N  87.4W   110 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N  87.5W    90 KTS...NEAR LAND
36HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  87.6W    80 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  87.7W    70 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     04/0000Z 24.0N  88.0W    85 KTS...INLAND
  
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