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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000
 
KEITH IS BECOMING A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE.  DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT KEITH IS STRENGTHENING. THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 970 MB...FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB
REACHED 98 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS...
OBJECTIVES AND SUBJECTIVE ARE INCREASING.  ALTHOUGH 98 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL CORRESPOND TO 80 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE....THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 85 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT SOME STRENGTHENING
HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE PLANE SAMPLED THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND
AS SUGGESTED BY OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS OVER A TREMENDOUS RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER OR LARGE
HEAT CONTENT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING
AT THIS TIME.  THE EFFECT OF LAND IS THE ONLY APPARENT INHIBITOR
FACTOR. IN ADDITION...EVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES
KEITH. THEREFORE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALTHOUGH MANY
TIMES...INTENSITY FORECAST TURN OUT TO BE WRONG ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER.
 
KEITH HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE... AND SO FAR...THIS HAS BEEN AN
OUTSTANDING JOB DONE BY THE GFDL AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL. IN
FACT...THE GFDL SUGGESTED A SMALL LOOP AND THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO
BE DOING SO AT THIS TIME.  TRACK GUIDANCE INCLUDING GLOBAL MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND ITS DERIVED GFDL WHICH TAKES KEITH
WESTWARD...SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF YUCATAN OR
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST LONG RANGE GFDL MODEL RUN MAKES KEITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
THE VESSEL C6YC JUST WEST OF THE EYE OF KEITH REPORTED NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 60 KNOTS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 18.0N  86.8W    85 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.4N  87.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  87.2W   105 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 20.3N  87.4W   105 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  87.5W    75 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  88.0W    85 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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