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TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS IS BASED ON REPORTS
OF 53-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY
BECOME ORGANIZED WITH GOOD BANDING FEATURES TO THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW
IS FAIR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. EVERY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS CONVENTIONAL PARAMETERS...WARM SST AND LOW SHEAR...
SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KEITH TO 75
KNOTS BY 72 HOURS...SHY OF SHIPS MODEL WHICH INCREASE THE WINDS TO
87 KNOTS.
THE CENTER IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE SO BOTH LOCATION AND INITIAL
MOTION ARE UNCERTAIN AND THERE MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT. IN
GENERAL...KEITH HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SINCE
YESTERDAY AND MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT KEITH WILL STILL BE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 72 HOURS...PRIMARILY THE RELIABLE
GFDL AND AVN MODELS. THE UK MODEL IS A LITTLE FASTER AND MOVES THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLOW TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 72 HOURS. KEITH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN IN 36 HOURS TO WARRANT A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.
THIS LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA. NORMALLY...THIS
PATTERN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
PREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF KEITH AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.6N 85.2W 45 KTS
12HR VT 30/0600Z 17.9N 85.0W 50 KTS
24HR VT 30/1800Z 18.4N 85.2W 55 KTS
36HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 85.5W 60 KTS
48HR VT 01/1800Z 20.0N 85.7W 65 KTS
72HR VT 02/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W 75 KTS
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