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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE DEPRESSION
CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES
BUT LACKS AN INNER CORE AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE FOR STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS.
FURTHERMORE...GFDL LONG RANGE RUNS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A POWERFUL
HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.
HOWEVER...ALL INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN FOR 12
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
ONLY. A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA TO DETERMINE THE
INTENSITY LATER TODAY.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A SLOW
TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWS TRACKS IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THEY VARY ALL
THE WAY FROM YUCATAN TO WESTERN CUBA BUT IN SUMMARY...IT PROBABLY
MEANS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THIS LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA. NORMALLY...THIS
PATTERN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
PREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.2N 84.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 84.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 30/1200Z 18.0N 84.7W 40 KTS
36HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 85.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.5N 85.0W 65 KTS
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