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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

THE LAST GEOSTATIONARY IMAGE WAS A GOES10 06Z BUT THERE WAS 0516Z
TRMM PASS WHICH SHOWS A FAIRLY GOOD LOW CLOOUD CENTER WHICH HAS
MOVED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WHOOPS...AN 0815Z GOES8
JUST CAME IN AND ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION.  THE 00Z
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IN COL REGION WITH A RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER
WEAKER RIDGE TO THE EAST.  THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS THE CENTER IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 72 HOURS AND THE GFDL MODEL HAS THE CENTER JUST
SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND BEGINNING A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION.  THE
GFDL MODEL IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHICH SHOWED
LITTLE MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THESE TWO MODELS AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS SINCE THE TRMM PASS LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD AND SAB GAVE A 35 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATE.  THE 00Z GFDL
MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 92 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND THERE WAS NO
SHIPS GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO 65 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AS DID THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 16.2N  83.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 16.6N  83.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 17.2N  83.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.8N  83.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.5N  84.2W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  85.0W    65 KTS
  
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