HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2000
 
AS OFTEN OCCURS WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS STAGE OF
DEVELOPMENT... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN HAS DECREASED DURING THE EVENING.  GIVEN THIS AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 25 KT.  IT IS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE CYCLONE STARTS INTO THE NEXT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM.

ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SATELLITE FIXES IS LARGER THAN ANY
LIKELY MOTION OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS STATIONARY.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ISOLATED FROM ANY
MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCES...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WILL NOT CHANGE IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE.  AFTER 36 HR OR SO...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S....AND THIS MAY CHANGE THE STEERING FLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE
GFDL WHICH LOOPS THE CYCLONE INTO HONDURAS...CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS...BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.

CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE
DEPRESSION...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING
THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
ALTHOUGH NO WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...ALL
INTEREST IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.  TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 16.2N  83.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 16.5N  83.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.9N  83.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 17.2N  83.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 17.5N  84.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N  85.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN