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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2000

SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM AND
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF A CIRCULATION WITH 32-KNOT WINDS WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPRESSION HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SOME CURVED BANDS BUT
CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED YET.  A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS
FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS
INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  A SLOW NORTHWEST DRIFT IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  LATEST AVN AND UK MODEL RUNS BASICALLY KEEP
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 72
HOURS.
 
ALTHOUGH NO WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...ALL
INTEREST IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.  TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 16.1N  82.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N  83.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 16.7N  83.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 17.0N  83.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N  84.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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