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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000
 
LATEST QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOW ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS AND SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOW BE A TROPICAL WAVE. TAFB AND AIR FORCE
GLOBAL ARE STILL CLASSIFYING JOYCE AS A 45 KNOT SYSTEM AND SAB AS A
30 KNOT SYSTEM.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE.  FOR THIS PACKAGE I AM KEEPING JOYCE AT 30 KNOTS. 

DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED EAST OF THE
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE OUTFLOW HAS NOT CHANGED IN
THE PAST SIX HOURS AND APPEARS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA
OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES... HISTORICALLY DO NOT
DEVELOP. THEREFORE...JOYCE IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHEN THE DEPRESSION
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
  
A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE.  INITIAL MOTION IS
285/13.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
WESTNORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS... EXCEPT FOR THE AVIATION
MODEL...WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK THAT BRINGS
THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA IN 72 HOURS.  HPC FEELS THAT THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE KEITH IN THE MODEL.  AT
THIS TIME WE WILL IGNORE THIS PARTICULAR TRACK SOLUTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 12.1N  64.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 12.7N  66.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.4N  68.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.2N  71.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.9N  73.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  79.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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