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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
JOYCE HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY.  THERE ARE BANDING FEATURES...
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED.  SURFACE DATA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE MOVED
VERY NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF TOBAGO.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
35 KNOTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. IF JOYCE
SURVIVES...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIMARILY BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN JOYCE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF
JOYCE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS.  IN FACT...TRACK MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 
IF JOYCE SURVIVES ITS PATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE JOYCE LATER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 11.7N  61.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 12.3N  63.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.0N  66.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N  68.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N  71.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N  77.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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