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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000

THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW THAT JOYCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.  THE STORM REMAINS QUITE
DISORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SHEARING...WHICH IS APPARENTLY BEING
PRODUCED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES RATHER THAN UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES...HAS NOT ABATED SO FAR.   CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD TO 35 KNOTS...AND SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LATER ON...SOME INTENSIFICATION
MAY OCCUR...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGRESSIVE AS THE
SHIPS MODEL.  THAT MODEL HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE STRENGTHENING OF
JOYCE...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS HAS NOT VERIFIED SO FAR.

MOTION IS FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...275/16.  BASED ON THIS...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL MAINTAINS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.   

SINCE THE STORM IS PREDICTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED
FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 10.4N  56.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 10.5N  58.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 11.3N  61.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 12.0N  64.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 13.0N  66.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N  70.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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